Indopolling Survey: Jokowi-Ma"ruf Superior in West Java

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By: Gani Permata *

The Indopolling Network Survey Institute stated that
electability of candidate pair President and Vice President number 01 Joko
Widodo-KH Ma’ruf Amin in West Java competed with the vice presidential
candidate number 02 Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno. The survey results show
Jokowi-Maur electability of 41.7 percent, while Prabowo-Sandi is 37.9 percent.
Voters who kept their answers secret and undecided voters were still 20.4
percent.

Indopolling Director, Wempy Present said the competition
for the two Presidential Candidates was very strict. Jokowi was superior in the
east of West Java or Cirebonan region, with 55.39 percent compared to 31.6
percent, and the remaining 13.29 percent did not answer. While Prabowo was
superior in the southern West Java region zone by reaching 50 percent. Jokowi’s
electability in the area is 40 percent. While those who did not answer were 10
percent.

In the central West Java zone, Jokowi won electability
41.99 percent, followed by Prabowo with 41.2 percent. The remaining 16.99
percent did not answer. In the northern West Java zone, Jokowi had 35.09
percent against 30.7 percent. With the remaining 34.4 percent not answering.

“West Java is getting more exciting, because Prabowo
won significantly in West Java in 2014. Now there is a sharp decline. If the
majority of the public is dissatisfied with Jokowi’s performance, then
Prabowo’s voters will certainly not switch choices, “said Wempy.

The Indopolling survey was conducted with a multistage
random sampling method during the period of January 2019. The population of
this survey was all Indonesian citizens in West Java Province, who had the
right to vote in the 2019 legislative and presidential elections, namely those
who were 17 years old or married when surveying do. The number of samples is
1200 respondents, with a sampling error of 2.8 percent at a 95 percent
confidence level.

Deputy Chairperson of Jokowi-Ma’ruf’s National Campaign
Team (TKN), Arsul Sani, said that his side was quite satisfied to see that
Jokowi-Mauf’s electability in West Java had increased. Because during the 2014
presidential election, Jokowi lost his voice compared to Prabowo in the West
Java region. At that time the Prabowo-Hatta Rajasa pair received 59.78 percent
of the vote, while Jokowi-JK received 40.22 percent of the vote.

“If we look at 2014, the Prabowo-Hatta vote gap with
Jokowi-JK is quite large. However, now I can smile somewhat that the results of
the survey obtained are comparable, “Arsul said.

Nevertheless, there are still several surveys which state
that Jokowi-Ma’ruf is not yet superior. So that he said he would continue to
work hard to improve electability in West Java, until finally he could win with
a significant vote.

Jokowi-Ma’uf’s electability increase in West Java was
caused by the performance of President Joko Widodo who was considered a
successful community, especially in building infrastructure. Apart from that,
as a incumbent, Jokowi was considered capable of showing performance in leading
the government. Evidenced by a survey that stated the level of respondents’
satisfaction with the Jokowi-JK government reached 56.8 percent.

Therefore, in conducting the campaign, Jokowi-Mauf TKN
should focus on socializing the achievements of the central government in
Jokowi’s five years of leadership.

* Student at University of Persada Indonesia

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