Indonesians Get Ready to Pass Judgement on "Jokowi"

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Similarities on Foreign Policy

Both Jokowi and Prabowo espouse an inward-looking, nationalist foreign policy that diverged from the incumbent"s predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. In his campaign, Prabowo has even adopted a variant of U.S. President Donald Trump"s campaign slogan in his speeches, proclaiming "Indonesia first, Make Indonesia Great Again." The two wish to develop a strong domestic economic capacity as a basis to pursue a more independent foreign policy. Moreover, both would focus on Indonesia"s status as a maritime linchpin to enforce the country"s territorial claims in the South China Sea and maintain a balance between the United States and China.

Divergence on the Economy

Jokowi"s strong polling position stems in part from the Indonesian economy"s relative stability over the past five years, during which time it has posted an average annual growth rate of 5 percent. The opposition, however, has criticized Jokowi for failing to attain the 7 percent economic growth he was targeting, accruing massive government debt, and presiding over an economy with deepening inequality and rising costs of living. Due to a massive infrastructure, education and health care push, government debt has risen around 48 percent since 2014, jumping from $122 billion to $181 billion; correspondingly, the country"s ratio of debt to gross domestic product has leaped from 24.7 to 30 percent. (Despite the rise, Indonesia"s government debt still remains low compared to the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while foreign lenders hold just 30 percent of this debt.) In response, Prabowo has proposed limits to Indonesia"s reliance on external trade in favor of developing greater self-sufficiency in food and fuel, criticizing what he describes as fraudulent record-keeping, combined with a failure to implement local protections, that the government has used to justify more imports. The Gerindra leader has also promised to agitate to rectify Indonesia"s $11 billion trade deficit with China, the country"s largest trade partner.

Jokowi, by contrast, has focused on forging more free trade agreements — in part due to the slowing Chinese economy and the knock-on effects of the U.S.-China trade war. In early March, Indonesia signed the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement after nearly a decade of negotiations. At present, Jokowi"s government is negotiating trade agreements with the European Union, Iran and Turkey, in addition to pushing for a breakthrough on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which would create deeper linkages with China, India and 14 other economies. Needless to say, Gerindra"s skepticism about trade deals could complicate the ratification of the Australian agreement, and other talks as well, if it performs well in simultaneous parliamentary elections.

Jokowi Goes Big on Infrastructure

Jokowi"s tenure began with the launch of a $355 billion infrastructure push centered on roads, railways, ports and power plants, both in a bid to capitalize on Indonesia"s geographic position at key maritime chokepoints and to fuel economic growth and regional development. As part of this drive, however, state-owned enterprises have assumed the lead, taking on massive debts in the process. Unsurprisingly given its close involvement with numerous infrastructure projects overseas, Beijing has been a key partner for Jakarta in developing Indonesia"s infrastructure projects. Indonesia is also a key strategic target for China"s massive Belt and Road Initiative, the Maritime Silk Road component of which was announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping during a visit to the archipelago in 2013. Still, progress has been slow on the $4.5 billion Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail project — the centerpiece of China"s infrastructure drive in the country. At present, just 10 percent of the link is complete, while the project has also become a lightning rod for criticism from opponents of Chinese investment in the country, given that Beijing is fronting 75 percent of the funding for the railway.

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